IF Pedro Sanchez were to call a snap general election for tomorrow, the polling is pretty conclusive as to who would win.
The centre-right Partido Popular claim the most seats – but Alberto Nuñez Feijoo would need a coalition with the hard-right Vox party to govern.
The Olive Press has averaged the eight most recent national polls, and the results are in.
The PP comes out on 33.3%, a clear 7.6 points ahead of the ruling PSOE on 25.7%.
Vox is third on 18.3%, up almost six points on the 2023 election.
The PP leads the PSOE by 7.6 points
Vote share, weighted average of eight national polls, fieldwork 20 Aug to 26 Sep 2026
Source: Olive Press weighted average of SocioMétrica, Celeste-Tel, DYM, EM-Analytics, Target Point, Hamalgama Métrica, GAD3 and Sigma Dos. Podemos ran inside Sumar in 2023.
In seats, that works out at roughly 142 for the PP, 104 for the PSOE and 64 for Vox.
The PP falls well short of the 176 needed for a majority on its own.
Together with Vox, however, it would hold around 205 seats – and not one of the eight polls puts that bloc below 199.
PP and Vox would win about 205 seats, 29 more than a majority
Congress of Deputies, 350 seats; average of the pollsters’ own seat projections
Source: Olive Press average of seat projections published by SocioMétrica, Celeste-Tel, DYM, EM-Analytics, Target Point, Hamalgama Métrica, GAD3 and Sigma Dos (midpoints where a range was given), fieldwork 20 Aug to 26 Sep 2026.
Left wing parties do not have an obvious route to obtaining a majority.
PSOE, Sumar and Podemos together poll around 34.7%, about 9 points down on their combined 2023 vote.
Even adding every Catalan, Basque and Galician party that backed Sanchez in 2023 would leave them roughly 30 seats short.
Sumar is the biggest casualty. Down from 12.3% and 31 seats in 2023, it now averages 5.7%.
Vox, meanwhile, has nearly doubled its 33 seats.
Several pollsters link its September rise to the Ceuta migration crisis, with Target Point finding about half its new voters came from the PP. A strong Vox makes a PP minority government much harder to sell.
Who are the main parties?
PP
The Partido Popular is Spain’s main centre-right party, led by Alberto Nuñez Feijoo, and is pro-business, pro-EU and firmly opposed to Catalan independence.
Housing is its main campaign theme, with a pledge to cut taxes on home purchases by 60% for young buyers, either through VAT or the property transfer tax, and to free up land for one million homes.
It also promises to mobilise €300 billion for roads, rail, water and energy, and opposes the government’s mass regularisation of undocumented migrants.
PSOE
The Partido Socialista Obrero Español is Spain’s main centre-left party, led by prime minister Pedro Sanchez, who heads a minority coalition with Sumar that relies on Basque and Catalan parties to pass laws.
Its flagship policies include a regularisation scheme for around 500,000 undocumented migrants with no criminal record, who could apply between April and 30 June 2026 and start work as soon as their application is admitted.
On housing, it has proposed income tax breaks of up to 100% for landlords who freeze rents at contract renewal, plus tighter rules on seasonal lets and room rentals.
Vox
Led by Santiago Abascal, Vox is widely described as far-right – a label it rejects – and combines hard-line nationalism with economic deregulation.
It wants ‘national priority’ for Spaniards in social housing and benefits, tied to legal residency, and the deportation of undocumented migrants.
Its 81-page deregulation plan, presented in June 2026, would scrap the Housing Law and rent controls, abolish low-emission zones in cities of more than 50,000 people, repeal the EU Green Deal and halt the EU-Mercosur trade deal.
Sumar
Sumar is a left-wing, green and feminist platform that sits in Sanchez’s coalition and pushes the government to the left on workers’ rights and housing.
It has criticised the PSOE’s landlord tax breaks as ‘giving public money to rentiers’, and favours tougher intervention in the rental market.
It is in flux: Yolanda Diaz announced in February she will not be its candidate in 2027, and its partners, including Izquierda Unida and Mas Madrid, are building a new alliance called Un Paso al Frente to replace it.
Podemos
Podemos is a left-wing populist party that sits to the left of Sumar, broke away from it in late 2023 and has refused to join the new Un Paso al Frente alliance.
It is led by Ione Belarra and holds just four seats in Congress. It campaigns for lower rents and tougher action against landlords, and backs a republic in place of the monarchy, a universal basic income and a more sceptical line on NATO and EU policy.
How we built this
We used the eight polls Democrata averaged on 1 October, cross-checked against the Wikipedia polling table and each pollster’s published figures.
Each poll’s weight halves for every 14 days since fieldwork ended (to 30 September), multiplied by the square root of its sample size.
Where a range of seats was published, we used its midpoint.
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