ONE in three migrants applying for Spain’s migration amnesty scheme is expected to be refused, as authorities brace for up to 750,000 applications.
According to a Ministry of Migration document, around 750,000 people are expected to apply for legal status under the scheme, though only 500,000 are likely to be approved.
Of those, around 300,000 are expected to qualify through the asylum route, covering applicants for international protection who entered Spain before January 1 this year.
A further 200,000 will be migrants who can prove that they have lived in Spain for at least five months as of January 1.
Drawing on projections from the 2025 regularisation of 25,000 migrants affected by the Valencia floods, the Ministry estimates that around 250,000 applicants will be ineligible for the scheme.
The document also states that migrants with pending residence and work permit applications will be excluded from the regularisation scheme.
This includes around 180,000 outstanding cases as of December 31, 2025.
Asylum seekers with pending procedures are able to apply for regularisation.
To avoid unequal treatment with asylum seekers, pending cases of other migrants will be fast-tracked and approved automatically, provided applicants have no criminal record.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced the plan to regularise half a million migrants in January and it was pushed through parliament via a royal decree.
The decree is currently under review by the State Council, which scrutinises government policies, and is expected to be approved on 21 April.
Once the decree is approved, authorities will have fifteen days to accept or reject applications, with a final decision to be issued within three months.
Successful applicants will be granted a temporary residence and work permit, subject to a €38.28 fee.
The Ministry has also projected which provinces will see the most applications, with Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Alicante, and Murcia expected to top the list.
They are followed by Malaga, Almeria, Girona and the Balearic Islands.
The scheme has been backed by the Catholic Church and the political left, however the right and far-right have criticised the scheme.
Vox strongly opposed the decree, arguing it could act as a ‘pull factor’ for illegal immigration.
Meanwhile, Migration Minister Elma Saiz defended the scheme as ‘common sense,’ highlighting the positive economic impact of migration.
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