John Culatto
WITH just three days left for Gibraltar’s historic election, opinion polls indicate that it is still too close to call who will be in government on October 13.
A poll by the Panorama newspaper of Gibraltar gives a narrow victory to the GSLP/Liberal party that it says would win by literally a few hundred votes.
But a second poll by Mediatel for GBC and the Gibraltar Chronicle suggests the GSD would win, even though the GSLP/Liberals would get more votes.
The latest polls follow three weeks of intense campaigning by both parties in estates, squares and the town centre.
What both polls do indicate is that whoever enters parliament might have to govern with just nine MPs.
The Panorama poll uses the tried and tested technique of a mock ballot being sent to voter’s homes by mail ten days ago.
Respondents then deposited their chosen vote by hand or in a letter to the Panorama offices.
It predicts that Giovanni Origo, Vijay Daryanani, Youssef El Hana and independent Robert Vasquez would all miss out in the election.
The UK company Mediatel carried out the GBC-Chronicle opinion poll in a face-to-face but anonymous way.
It suggests that GSLP co-founder Sir Joe Bossano could miss out on a place in Parliament for the first time in more than half a century.
The others to lose out are the three cited by the Panorama poll above.
The polls indicate a strong performance by new GSLP candidates Gemma Arias Vasquez and Christian Santos, who could be the most voted candidates after the three party leaders.
But new GSD candidate Origo could find the going harder after he struggled in some of the live TV debates.
The GSD has played its campaign heavily on reducing public debt, while the GSLP/Liberal coalition has argued for continuity at a crucial time.
The GSD are promising change to the privately-run government funded companies that have been used by Sir Joe Bossano to create local wealth.
But the GSLP/Liberals say that their Conservative-allied rivals’ economic policy will bring austerity and tax cuts.
It could all go down to the wire for those undecided voters at the final leaders’ debate in Wednesday night’s debate on national television.
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