24 Jun, 2024 @ 18:00
1 min read

Spain’s population to soar by five million over the next 15 years due to surging number of immigrants

Spain's population to soar by five million over the next 15 years due to surging number of immigrants

SPAIN’S population will rise by five million over the next 15 years to reach nearly 54 million people- mainly down to immigration.

The projection was issued on Monday by demographic experts working for the National Institute of Statistics(INE).

The rise will slow down with a predicted population of 54.6 million by the year 2074.

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The increase is largely down to the significant annual arrival of immigrants with no sign of that changing.

Spain’s internal natural growth, i.e. a balance between births an deaths, will continue to be negative, meaning the trend of the last decade is expected to continue, with more deaths than births.

INE calculations show that Spanish residents born abroad will account for 39% of the total population within 50 years.

That percentage is double that held by immigrants who make up around 18% of the population, some 8.5 million residents.

Estimates suggest that over the next five years, the rise in population of migrant origin will be about 3.5 million.

Looking to 2038, they will have will have risen from today by seven million and then in half a century, by 2072, they will be almost 17 million more than now- totalling 25 and 25 million.

The INE says the current and very high flow of net arrivals, close to 800,000 per year, will not be maintained, but the migratory balance will continue to be above half a million per year until the end of this decade.

It will then stand at over 280,000 net arrivals per year in fifteen years time and will increase in 2072 to an average of 300,000.

Population ageing will continue for at least the next three decades., reaching a maximum in 2055 with 30.5% of people over 65 years of age.

Life expectancy is currently 80.74 years for men and 86.20 for women.

The INE believes that by 2036. men will live an average of 82.62 years and women, 87.52 years.

By 2073 the average will rise to 86 years for men and 90 years for women.

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