UNLIKE many of its European neighbours, Spain is taking a different approach to immigration.
In January, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez unveiled a plan to regularise around half a million undocumented immigrants and asylum seekers, sparking debate over the role of migrants in Spanish society.
A new report, Spain Facing the Migration Challenge: Two Possible Scenarios, published by the National Office for Foresight and Strategy, examines just how crucial immigration is to the country’s demographic and economic future.
It examines two scenarios – steady migration versus a 30 per cent long-term decline – and projects Spain’s demographic and economic outlook for 2075 in both situations.
Under the first scenario, Spain’s population could rise to 55 million.
But if immigration drops, the country could shrink to just 40 million – 10 million fewer than today.
The working-age population (16-64 year-olds) tells a similar story: there would be about 33 million working people in the baseline scenario, but only 24 million if immigration falls – a shortfall of nine million workers.
Fewer workers would directly hit the economy, contributing to a sharp drop in GDP and lower income per person.
The report highlights that a drop in migration could shrink Spain’s GDP by over 20 per cent by 2075 and leave each resident €18,000 worse off.
Agriculture, hospitality and education would face the biggest blows if immigration falls, the report warns.
Over 220,000 farms – three in ten – could disappear by 2075, pushing up the cost of fruit and vegetables.
Nearly half of Spain’s bars and restaurants – around 90,000 – could also be forced to close, reshaping the country’s hospitality and tourism sectors.
Low immigration could leave thousands of classrooms empty and force major school restructuring and closures.
By 2075, Spain might lose 32,000 primary and 18,000 secondary classrooms.
Foreign students – already over one million, accounting for 12% of compulsory education – play a crucial role in sustaining schools in regions hit hardest by demographic decline.
Falling immigration could also intensify the ‘Empty Spain’ trend, leaving rural towns increasingly depopulated.
With fewer immigrants and an aging population, Spain’s sparsely populated regions could teeter on the edge of becoming ghost towns.
By 2075, the provinces of Huesca, Soria, and Teruel could lose 28% of their population, and nearly 2,300 towns may be abandoned under a low?migration scenario.
Overall, the report underscores how future migration levels could shape Spain’s population, economy, and communities for decades to come
Click here to read more Spain News from The Olive Press.
Maybe the government should examine the ways to motivate young couples to have children and organically increase the population with people of the same life ethic? Importing people with dissimilar values can lead to a societal breakdown and higher crime levels. However PM Sanchez did say that immigrants are more likely to support the liberal side and liberal causes more than native Spaniards. That is a motivator for some.