Charlie Smith
THE coronavirus pandemic will have left Spain by September 9, a new study has predicted.
Taking into account ‘current trends’, the country will have registered 99% of its COVID-19 cases by May 22.
That is according to researchers at the Singapore University of Technology and Design, whose study used predictive modelling.
Their analysis, which used data up to May 2, found that Spain may have seen 97% of its cases by May 7.
Other countries were also studied, including China, Australia and South Korea, all three of which have ‘theoretically’ already shaken off the pandemic.
Meanwhile, France is predicted to see an end to coronavirus on August 8, Germany on August 14, the UK on September 8 and Italy on September 10.
September 19 is the magic date for Mexico, while in the US it is October 1 and in Brazil, October 21.
The global picture is that the coronavirus pandemic will last until December 14 2020, although 99% of cases are predicted to have been recorded by June 21.
Researchers said they ‘expected’ their results to change over time, given the rapidly evolving nature of the coronavirus pandemic, according to EFE.
On a graph of cumulative coronavirus cases plotted over time, scientists said that the results would appear as an S-curve.
This is where a steeper rise in the middle of a graph is displayed, before the line flattens out at the top.
Researchers said that a bell curve – a depiction of normal probability distribution – of the coronavirus pandemic would be lopsided, with a ‘long tail’ on the right hand side,
This is because, while the numbers of cases exploded initially, there has since been a slow decrease in many countries, including Spain.
The research used the SIR (susceptible-infected recovered) model, which uses countries’ daily data to forecast how the pandemic will behave.
Researchers added that their findings should be taken ‘with caution’.
A spokesperson for the group said: “Given the uncertainty and flexibility, one can simply exploit the estimated life cycle curve, especially its rightmost tail segment, to examine and detect when and to what extent the pandemic gradually disappears.”
In other words, the scientists are using the most recent data to plot the future of what is a very fluid and volatile set of circumstances.
The spokesperson added the further caveat: “Too much optimism based on some expected end dates is dangerous, because it can relax our discipline and controls.”
