With the polls neck-and-neck, Marbella lawyer Alex Radford takes a look at what a Brexit will mean in the days, months and years following an out vote:
The UK and Europe wake to the reality that Brexit is on. The world is in shock! Brexiteers are still partying. The Remain campaigners are nowhere to be seen.
European stock markets open and immediately crash.
The pound falls by more than 20 cents against the euro.
In Spain, expats and locals are still recovering from their San Juan hangovers. Summer has arrived, or has it?
Expat estate agents begin to receive calls from worried Brits who question whether they can afford their Spanish property purchase, after all, due to the slump of the pound. Spanish mortgage brokers are inundated with calls to rearrange terms… it’s better, after all, to take a euro mortgage rather than lose deposits paid.
Hundreds of law firms are instructed to invoke their Brexit clause and cancel their property purchase contracts. Currency companies have one of their best trading days as Brits who sold their Spanish property buy sterling.
The acting Spanish prime minister warns Brits living in Spain that life will become difficult as there will be no free movement of labour and agreements in place between the countries for healthcare and pensions will be reviewed.
David Cameron sends formal letter to European Union and the two-year exit process commences.
The pound has recovered against the euro, but by just two cents.
It becomes clear that this will be a complicated and long drawn out process. The UK has two years to negotiate its exit so nothing will happen until then. The EU will not make the negotiation process easy. Spain has a new Coalition Government and leader.
Helping the Brits left in Spain is at the bottom of his list.
Hundreds of foreign owned estate agents in Spain have closed as demand from British buyers has dried up entirely and the UK is officially now in recession.
Talks are ongoing between the EU and the UK regarding the provision of healthcare. Pensioners living in Spain are worried they may not be able to afford private health cover, if a deal is not done.
The pound has slumped, can they afford to stay in Spain or should they return to the UK? Thousands have already made the decision to leave.
Brits living in Spain permanently now have to apply to Spain for a two-year residency visa. It is a complicated proceedure.
Spain will treat Brits living here in Spain for more than 183 days as Spanish tax residents. Anyone living in Spain for less time will pay more tax.
Inheritance tax allowances for non-tax resident Brits inheriting Spanish property are to be abolished.
More capital gains tax will be payable when non-Spanish tax residents sell their property, with increase likely to be at least 5%. That’s a lot of money.
New Spanish Government recognises important economic effects of Brits visiting, working and living in Spain. Promises to protect their interests.
But can they be trusted?
Healthcare deal agreed. Brits living in Europe can access healthcare, but again it means a lot of form filling. British Pensioners living in Spain breathe a sigh of relief.
UK still in recession, even though the pound has recovered slightly against the euro and stands at 1.13.
Lack of demand from Brits means property prices in Spain have not recovered as expected.
The UK has left the EU and the European Court of Justice. Brits living in Spain fear that Spain will take advantage of lack of protection from the European Court of Justice. After all it was the EU Commission, not Britain, who took Spain to the ECJ for discriminating against foreigners for inheritance tax, capital gains tax and non residents income tax. Who will protect them now? David Cameron resigns and is replaced by a new leader. Who?
Lawyers receive unprecedented number of calls to assist with new Spanish wills to mitigate inheritance tax, assistance with new Spanish visa application process and clients seeking litigation advice to enforce contracts.
Clients sell their property in order to pay inheritance tax.
The days of the British diaspora in Spain being the biggest and one of the healthiest in the world are well and truly over.
Day 1001, extradition agreement from Spain is cancelled, the crooks flood back, loadsamoney for Spain.
Eccellent article Alex, telling it like it is/will be. Effectively we’ll have to trust the Spanish to play fair! And you haven’t mentioned the effect on GIBRALTAR and its economy and finance held there. Everything crossed that the UK sees sense and votes Remain.
Just cant believe there are some people out there who still believe this scaremongering twaddle. Look up some facts please!!
What a load of b*ll*cks
It’s articles like this that need people like me to assure panicking and frightened friends and neighbours living in Spain that there is nothing to worry about for at least two years. On this last day of the campaign, I’ve read and seen more rubbish than all the previous 124 days put together.
Glad I have dual nationality lol.
And you know this how? More scaremongering. As if Cameron will still be in by then! He will be out before the end of this year, regardless of the result. It’s total rubbish. Are Spain going to kick out 25% of their property market? hahahahaha…. Are they gonne kick us out, and in return see 300,000 Spaniards residing in the uk kicked out also? Hahahahhaha… Are Microsoft suddenly gonna withdraw Windows from sale in the UK? hahahahaha… Are the Germans suddenly gonna stop selling VW, Porsche, Audi etc in the UK? Hahahahahah… Don’t believe a word of it. UK WILL be better out of EU, as we were better before it. Don’t anybody listen to the celebs, the big business owners or MPs. They all channel their money through off-shore accounts to pay less tax, so of course they want us to stay! Remember people, Europe is THE ONLY continent to show negative growth in the last 10 years (except Antarctica). It is a failed experiment and we should get out WHILE WE CAN! If all you leftie-luvvies cause a Remain vote you will have some explaining to do when your grandkids ask why their great grandparents fought and died for Britain and then you lot gift-wrapped it and gave it away.
“Lefty-Luvvies”? Think you’ll find it’s a right-wing, Conservative government that is leading the fight to remain in the EU. Although of course, some of the Leavers are to the right of Genghis Khan and would consider Cameron and Co. to BE Lefties.
So, in the event of a Brexit,Spain would be nasty to Brit ex-pat pensioners and workers,totally disregarding a quarter of a million Spanish nationals residing in UK and twelve million Brits holidaying annually in Spain,the foundation of their economy?? If you believe that, then you must be on drugs.
The one certainty is that nobody can make an accurate prediction of how Brexit would pan out. That said, I think it is safe to say that it would not do anyone with interests in Spain any favours and I think it is also safe to say that the other EU member states will not do the UK any favours.
If the final polls are to be believed, it is going to the wire. Only another day or so to go before we find out….
We will be glued to the TV tomorrow night and into the early hours.
Think he needs to do a creative writing course, then start trying his hand at fiction, because he shows a flair for inventing fantasy tales….
Two years before anything happens. Alex Radford you are speaking out of your backside. Stop trying to spook people.
Yeah, chill Alex. You have two years before the roof falls in. Tranquilo hasta manana.
I don’t think I’ve read such irresponsible and fantastical twaddle. The Olive Press should be more mindful of its readership rather than trying to out do Cameron is scare tactics. Of course the answer as always is in self interest. If the Leave side win and Some expats decide to go back to the UK then who will be left to read the Olive Press anyway?
Hear Hear Alex – I agree completely and hope upon hope that tomorrow we wake up to a sizeable Remain majority and a new dawn for the EU and our partners. Vote leavers – turkeys voting for christmas (pardon the pun).
Don’t worry Adrian, it’s not a pun in the slightest. It is just a very tired expression from an extremely short sighted bunch of EU fanatics…
Britain is not leaving the European Court of Human Rights, it is a separate treaty and not linked with EU in Brussels.
The obvious solution to the issue surrounding expats status in Spain, right to health care for instance, is easy – give Gibraltar back to Spain.