THE Andalucian economy is predicted to contract by up to 11.5%, a new study has found.

According to forecasts by Analistas Economicos de Andalucia, which is part of Unicaja Banco, the region’s economy will shrink by 8.4% in the best case scenario and 11.5% in the worst case.

The report was made on the assumption that the state of emergency would end on May 24, but that could well be extended for another two weeks.

For this reason, the analysts specify that: “All economic projections must be taken with extreme caution and considered as approximations.”

The report also takes into account the rate of unemployment, which could increase by the end of the year by another 8%.

That would mean that 27.3% of the population in the region could be unemployed, but could exceed 29% if the ‘return to normality was delayed until the end of the year.’

The analysts have also made certain predictions for 2021, with the Andalucian GDP predicted to grow by between 5.6% and 8.1%, but not to the levels prior to the pandemic.

In addition, unemployment would also apparently fall to 23.7%, but they warn that it would remain at above 25% if the economic revival was delayed more than expected.

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