THE imminent arrival of Donald Trump in the White House is sending tremors of apprehension through Spain even as he is inaugurated today.
A new report has laid out how a right-wing Trump administration could ‘reduce the margins of [Spain’s] foreign policy’ and ‘harm the completion of the agreement with the United Kingdom on Gibraltar.’
Entitled Spain in the world in 2025: Perspectives and Challenges from the Elcano Royal Institute, it lays out a number of possible scenarios, some more optimistic than others.
In the pessimistic outlook, Trump will take a dim view of Spain’s defence spending – the lowest in NATO – as well as its recognition of a Palestinian state and its soft approach to two US adversaries in Cuba and Venezuela.

“Pressure from the US makes it difficult and reduces the margins of foreign policy, which harms the management of delicate relations with Morocco and the completion of the agreement with the United Kingdom on Gibraltar,” the report speculates.
It also worries that a Trump administration will damage Spain’s standing in Brussels: “The lack of unity among the Twenty-Seven [EU member states] (where Eurosceptic forces continue to rise) and the fact that the [Spanish] government is weak and located to the left of the new trend in Europe corners Spain’s positions in Brussels.
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“At the internal level, the parliamentary instability of the government, the lack of a new budget, and the strong conflict between the PP and the PSOE prevent a coherent position from being established in the face of all these challenges, affecting Spain’s influence and international prestige.”
However, one likely outcome of Trump’s arrival is a closening of relations between the EU and the UK – especially if the left-wing British government cools relations with the US.
“It is crucial that the EU seeks possible alliances, including that of a United Kingdom with many common economic and strategic interests with Europe and without a particularly fluid political relationship with the new US Administration,” it says.
In a more optimistic view, the report speculates that ‘US diplomacy adopts a pragmatic approach and identifies Spain, with whom it has no trade imbalance problems, as a useful partner in Latin America and a strategic ally, considering [its] military bases [in Spain] and the government’s announcement to increase the defence budget.’
If a Trump admin takes a benign view of Spain, then the report hopes that ‘customs are opened in Ceuta and Melilla and Gibraltar is incorporated into the Schengen area.’
Under such circumstances, Spain is able to ‘present itself to the world as a middle power consistent with international law and facilitator of geopolitical bridges with the ‘global south’.’
“Internal polarisation is limited to domestic issues and the two major parties begin a new period of rapprochement on state issues that reinforce Spain’s international reputation,” the report concludes.
Spanish diplomacy will no doubt be boosted by the appointment of an Andalucian as Undersecretary of Science and Innovation at the Department of Energy in the new Trump administration.
Dario Gil, who was born in El Palmar in Cadiz province but grew up in Madrid, will play an important role in the US government heading a key agency in the US’s science and technology policies.