Walter Finch
US mid-air refuelling tankers landed at an American airbase near Sevilla overnight amid expectations of a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
A group of at least 32 aircraft were tracked crossing the Atlantic, with a considerable number landing at the Moron air base, while others headed to the UK, Germany, Italy, Estonia, and other areas under the US Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees the Middle East.
The large scale military deployments have come as tensions in the region reached new heights following a major Israeli military operation against Iran which began on June 13.
US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social as the planes were in flight: “Simply put, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately!”
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The pronouncement appeared to prompt a mass exodus from the Iranian capital of 14 million people, while Israeli fighter jets have been operating in the skies overhead with impunity.
Meanwhile, the US State Department urged ‘US citizens unable to leave Iran [to] be prepared to shelter in place for an extended time.’
Known as Operation Rising Lion, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has indicated that Israeli strikes have likely damaged or destroyed thousands of centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear site.
A second Iranian military facility, known as the Fordow site – a key site for uranium enrichment buried beneath a mountain – remains largely unscathed, however, according to the IAEA.
Located near near Qom, Fordow is dug nearly 100 metres under the ground and it is thought Israel lacks the munitions to penetrate it.
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It has been speculated that the US tankers at Morón could be preparing to support long-range flights, possibly by B-2 stealth bombers carrying ‘bunker-buster’ bombs, to finish the job where Israel’s efforts fell short.
The US possesses the GBU-43/B MOAB and GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), capable of penetrating up to 60 metres of earth – although Fordow’s depth may require multiple strikes.
The Moron base, near the Strait of Gibraltar, has a history of hosting US forces during conflicts like the Kosovo War in 1999 and operations over Libya in 2011, serving as a vital refuelling hub.
It’s located near to Rota Naval Station in Cadiz, which is home to the US Sixth Fleet. During past conflicts like the Gulf War, Moron hosted large numbers of military planes, underlining its strategic value.
While no official reason has been given for the current tanker movement, their presence on Spanish soil highlights Spain’s role in the US’s global military posture.
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The timing of the flight movements also aligns with the start of Atlantic Trident 25, a NATO air exercise beginning today in Finland, which involves forces from the US, UK, France, and Finland.
Yet, the eastward movement of some tankers toward CENTCOM areas has raised questions about a link to the Middle East crisis.
Observers note the aircraft flew at high altitudes and took eastward paths, suggesting repositioning rather than immediate combat support.
Oil prices have already jumped 10% since the Israeli strikes, with Brent crude reaching its highest since January, and analysts warn of a potential rise to $80-$100 per barrel if Iran’s oil infrastructure is targeted.
The potential collapse of the Iranian regime is another possibility, with Israel’s ‘decapitation’ strikes killing key Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin?Netanyahu even explicit called for the Iranian people to rise up against the Islamic regime in Tehran during a televised statement at the start of the operation.
For Russia’s Vladimir Putin, the situation is double-edged: Iran supplies Shahed drones for his war in Ukraine, and losing this ally could hinder his campaign.
Yet, higher oil prices would boost Russia’s economy and war machine, a concern raised by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Meanwhile, China has ordered its citizens to evacuate Israel due to escalating risks and has sent cargo ships to Iran.
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