What is behind dire predictions that Spain will suffer an extreme water crisis by 2050?

SPAIN has been lumped in with desert countries in Africa and the Middle East facing a future water crisis by 2050.

The World Resources Institute included Spain with countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran as facing some of the worst ratios for water demand versus availability based on data from 2024. 

Along with India, Chile and the southern tip of Africa, this band of countries will face an ‘extremely high water stress ratio’ of over 80% by mid-century.

Spain’s current water stress ratio – which measures annual water usage against freshwater supply – sits at approximately 43%, placing it in the ‘high stress’ category according to international standards. 

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This means the country consumes nearly one-half of its total renewable water resources each year.

Recent rains have temporarily boosted reservoir levels to around 66% capacity, but the country remains under significant long-term water pressure.

It is a hydrological crisis that has been intensifying over recent decades due to multiple converging factors, according to a leading meteorologist.

“Spain is a country vulnerable to water scarcity, and this vulnerability has been increasing in recent decades,” warned Mario Picazo, a meteorologist at The Weather Network and El Tiempo, and professor of meteorology and climate change at UCLA.

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Picazo went on to highlight five critical issues driving Spain’s water shortage crisis, pointing to Spain’s Mediterranean climate as a fundamental challenge, with much of the country experiencing long, hot, dry summers. 

Prolonged droughts have become commonplace, particularly affecting southern and southeastern regions including Andalucia, Murcia, and the Valencian Community.

Climate change has significantly worsened these natural patterns, making droughts both more frequent and severe. 

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Spain ranks among the European countries most severely impacted by global warming, with scientists predicting substantial reductions in rainfall alongside rising average temperatures.

Agriculture represents the largest drain on Spain’s water resources, with Picazo noting that ‘agriculture consumes around 80% of available water in Spain, especially in irrigation crops.’ 

He added that inefficient or unsustainable irrigation systems frequently compound pressure on water resources.

The country also struggles with unequal water distribution. 

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Northern regions such as Galicia and Cantabria enjoy plenty of water, whilst the south and southeast face chronic shortages. 

Water transfer schemes between river basins have sparked ongoing political and social debates within Spain over who deserves scarce resources.

The Tagus-Segura water transfer, for example, is a vast hydraulic system that diverts water from central Spain’s Tagus River to the arid southeast, including the heavily-populated and agriculturally active Murcia and Alicante regions.

However, critics say it deprives upstream regions like Castilla-La Mancha of vital resources, while at the same time fuelling unsustainable intensive agriculture in the south.

Meanwhile, urban expansion and tourism create additional strain on water systems. 

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Cities, large-scale construction projects, and intensive tourism – especially along coastal areas – generate enormous water demand during peak summer months, precisely when availability is at its lowest.

The warnings come as Spain continues to grapple with recurring drought conditions that have affected reservoir levels and agricultural output across multiple regions – despite a rainy spring. 

Water management remains a contentious political issue, with regional governments often disagreeing over resource allocation and transfer schemes.

Picazo’s analysis underscores the urgent need for comprehensive water management strategies as climate change continues to reshape Spain’s hydrological landscape.