MALAGA’S population has been forecast to smash the two million mark and overtake Sevilla as the largest province in Andalucia, driven almost entirely by a booming foreign community.
The province will reach 2.01 million inhabitants by 2035 and overtake Sevilla just two years later, according to new data from the National Statistics Institute (INE).
By 2041, Malaga will have gained 253,903 new residents to reach a total of 2.06 million.
But the headline figure conceals a more dramatic demographic shift.
The number of foreign-born residents will surge by 57% over the next 15 years, swelling from 453,393 today to 714,235.
At the same time, the Spanish-born population is forecast to actually shrink, falling by nearly 7,000 people to 1.35 million.
It means that by 2041, 35% of people living in the Costa del Sol province will have been born abroad.
The figures represent a 14% growth rate for Malaga, vastly outpacing the national average of 8.5%.
Sevilla, by contrast, is stagnating.
The current Andalucian heavyweight will grow by just 0.9% to 2.01 million over the same period.
Across Andalucia, the data reveals a clear coastal shift in population.
Almeria is projected to see the second-largest growth, adding some 125,000 residents, while Granada and Huelva will also see significant gains.
Meanwhile, inland provinces are hollowing out.
Jaen is forecast to lose nearly 48,000 residents and Cordoba will shed more than 33,000.
Cadiz will maintain its position as the region’s third-most populated province with 1.26 million people, despite a marginal loss of just over 1,000 residents.
Nationally, Spain’s population is expected to grow by more than four million to reach 53.8 million by 2041.
The INE stressed that its figures are projections based on current demographic trends rather than absolute predictions.
But the trajectory is clear: the Costa del Sol is rapidly becoming the new demographic centre of southern Spain.
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