FROM Palm Sunday (March 29, 2026) to Easter Sunday (April 5), Andalucia will be taking to the streets.
Ancient tradition dictates that Semana Santa must be celebrated with daily processions.
However, every Spaniard dreads bad weather. The precious holy statues cannot be exposed to rain. If clouds form, the processions will be cancelled, and months of preparation will have been squandered.
So what do the weathermen say?
It will come as no surprise to learn that the experts aren’t sure. AEMET (Spain’s official weather agency) thinks the lead-up to Holy Week might be wet.
“For the week of March 23-29, uncertainty increases considerably, as is typical with such long-term forecasts. With the information currently available, rainfall could continue in the east and south of the Iberian Peninsula.”
Well, thanks for that.
Some meteorologists have been brave enough to comment via social media, offering some clues that shed light on the upcoming weather.
Juan Antonio Salado, an expert and member of the Spanish Meteorological Association (AME), suggests that spring-like weather is most likely.
Not exactly sticking his neck out, is he? So we’re none the wiser.
Some forecasts say there is a 40% to 95% chance of rain from Friday, March 20, to Sunday, March 22.
Meanwhile, experts at Meteored (a leading platform for meteorological and technological information) forecast cloudy skies for Good Friday, with highs of 19C and lows of 9C.
Can we glean any clues by looking to the past, and analysing what has happened in previous years?
According to climatological records for Malaga, the week of processions usually falls in late March and early April, with a probability of rain ranging between 15% and 25% of the time.
Despite this, there are unstable years, such as 2024, historically marked by heavy rain and numerous procession cancellations.
Similarly, in 2025, the images of the Risen Christ and the Queen of Heaven were unable to process in Malaga due to bad weather.
The other side of the coin reveals some years of clear skies and few incidents.
One of the most recent and celebrated examples was 2023, when Holy Week was truly memorable, with virtually all the brotherhoods able to complete their penitential processions without incident.
Spring, which begins on March 20, is expected to be warmer than normal across much of the country, with probabilities ranging from 50% to 70% depending on the region.
The Balearic Islands have a 70% probability of above-average temperatures, the rest of the Iberian Peninsula reaches 60%, and the Canary Islands, along with the southwest of the peninsula, register a 50% probability.
Regarding rainfall, there is no clear trend, although in the southwest of the peninsula and the Canary Islands there is a slight probability of a drier-than-normal spring.
While the north and interior of the country are more variable, some provinces like Ourense, Lleida, and Tarragona can enjoy mild afternoons, although nights are still usually cool.
A useful indicator for those seeking favourable weather is the so-called “20-20 rule.” This combines average highs above 20C with less than 20% of rainy days.
Several coastal areas in Malaga, Almeria, Murcia, Alicante, Tarragona, and the Canary Islands meet this criterion, offering a higher probability of enjoying pleasant weather.
Although these regions generally offer good weather, the possibility of showers during Holy Week cannot be ruled out.
In a nutshell, then, no-one knows!
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