A POSSIBLE ‘super El Niño’ is raising concerns that this summer could bring extreme heat to Spain.
Experts say there is a strong chance the climate pattern known as ‘El Niño’ will develop in the coming months, with early signs suggesting it could be particularly powerful.
If that happens, it could push global temperatures higher by around 0.2C on average, intensifying extreme weather events across the world.
El Niño is part of a natural weather pattern linking the ocean and atmosphere, known as an ENSO cycle.
It occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual.
The opposite effect is know as La Niña, which is still weakly present in the Pacific Ocean.
This has led to a temporary lowering of global temperatures, meaning 2025 was cooler than 2024 – the hottest year on record.
Even relatively small changes in ocean temperature can have a major impact on precipitation, drought, heat and climate disasters.
During El Niño, weakened winds allow warm water to spread eastwards, altering rainfall, storm patterns and temperatures worldwide.
A ‘super El Niño’ is simply a stronger version of the same phenomenon, usually defined by temperatures rising at least 2C above average.
These events are rare but far more disruptive, with the last sustained period taking place in 2015-16.
Scientists estimate there is around a one-in-four chance of such an event developing later this year, although forecasts made in spring can still change as conditions evolve.
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El Niño also has a powerful effect on the atmosphere, shifting jet streams and flipping weather patterns.
Some regions can see intense rainfall and storms, while others face drought and prolonged heat.
Current models suggest a 62 per cent chance that El Niño will emerge this summer and ‘last until the end of the year. ‘persist through until at least the end of 2026’.
That does not guarantee Spain will see its hottest summer on record, but it does increase the likelihood of above-average heat during summertime.
However, the impact may be felt most acutely later in the year, with El Niño linked to harsher winters across Europe, including in Spain and the UK.
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