WITH LESS than a week to go until Spain’s July 23 general election, the latest polling for Spanish newspaper El Pais is predicting that the conservative Popular Party (PP) will still win the most seats, and that far-right Vox will secure enough support for the two parties to nearly reach an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.
The survey, carried out by pollster 40dB, is the last that can be published before the elections under Spanish electoral law. It gives the PP 135 seats in the 350-seat Congress, with 38 for Vox. This would take the two parties to a total of 173 seats, just three short of the 176 seats needed for a majority.
The latest polling shows a slight improvement for the PP, which analysts suggest could be down to the party leader’s strong performance at a head-to-head televised debate last week with the Socialist Party prime minister Pedro Sanchez.
For its part, the Socialist Party has also won back some support in recent days of polling, and is predicted to take 110 seats at the elections.
If the Socialists are to form a government, they will need the support of the new leftist alliance Sumar. That party is currently polling with 36 seats at the elections.
With a total of 146 seats, those two groups would fall well short of a majority but will likely be able to find support from other smaller parties in Congress.
The current Socialist-led administration is a coalition with leftist Unidas Podemos, and has been governing in a minority for nearly four years by seeking support from other groups.
The latest polling also shows how close the battle is going to be between far-right Vox and leftist Sumar for the position of third-biggest party in Congress.
The snap general election was called in a surprise move by Pedro Sanchez, after his party and other leftist groups fared poorly at the May 28 local and regional elections.
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