Walter Finch
TRUMP’s tariffs have rocked the world and set the scene for an impending trade war that experts fear will inflict widespread economic damage – and Andalucia won’t be spared.
From April 9, all exports from the EU to the United States will be hit with a 20% tariff – a move that could cost the southern Spanish region up to €2.4 billion, with olive oil and table olives taking the brunt.
The region exported €3.1 billion worth of goods to the US last year, with nearly half coming from the agri-food sector. Olive oil alone raked in €860 million in 2024, making it the hardest-hit product.
It’s a major blow to a sector that’s spent years growing its market share in the US, surpassing even Italy in recent years.
Industry leaders warn that thousands of jobs could now be at risk, particularly in rural areas where agri-food exports are a vital part of the local economy.
“It’s unfair competition,” said Rafael Pico from exporter association Asoliva, warning that countries like Turkey and Morocco – which only face 10% tariffs – will gain ground.
Black olives are already subject to a 31.5% US duty following a 2018 dispute. The new tariffs could push the total to over 50%, potentially wiping out what remains of Spain’s share.
Olive oil cooperatives across Jaen, Cordoba and Seville are scrambling to find new markets in Asia and the Gulf, but the switch won’t be easy — or fast.
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Wines – including sherry – rice, vegetables, seafood and even natural stone have also been dragged into the dispute. Aeronautics exports worth €138 million in 2024 could also be affected.
Trump’s decision to end a 45-year duty-free agreement between Airbus and Boeing has raised fears of a wider transatlantic trade war.
While energy products and copper are exempt, the ripple effects will be felt across the board.
The trade imbalance already favours the US, but Andalucian producers fear this latest move could tip some sectors over the edge.
READ MORE: Europe in shock as Trump announces 20% tariffs on imports from Spain and the EU
Not everyone is panicking. Some experts believe strong demand and high US consumer prices may absorb the extra costs. “A 20% tariff won’t stop olive oil sales,” said agro consultant Juan Vilar.
But others warn Spain could lose out to cheaper producers with looser labour standards.
Andalusia’s farming unions have called for urgent EU compensation to protect the livelihoods of thousands across the region.
In response, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has unveiled a €14.1 billion aid package aimed at mitigating the impact on affected industries.
The aid package is designed to support sectors such as olive oil, olives, wine, and natural stone—key contributors to Andalucía’s economy that are now facing increased tariffs.
