Adam Husicka
SPAIN is entering a decade of unprecedented retirements that will reshape its labour market and test the resilience of its economy.
Data from the Public Employment Service (SEPE) shows that 80% of jobs created over the next ten years will simply replace workers leaving the labour force, instead of creating new employment.
This is due to the retirement of the “baby boomer” generation, born between the 1940s and 1960s. Many in this generation have already retired, but the rest are now reaching the end of their working lives.
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Sectors with the oldest workforces will face the biggest challenges. Public administration, healthcare and education together employ more than 3.5 million people, and a large share of these workers are already over 50.
SEPE data show that 15.6% of public administration staff, 12.7% of healthcare workers and nearly 8% of education professionals are aged 60 or above. In central government alone, more than half of the workforce is expected to retire within the next decade.
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The education system is particularly exposed. Only 8% of primary teachers are under 30, while almost 40% of secondary teachers are over 50. At universities, 42% of professors are over 50, compared with just 19% under 40.
Health services face a double strain of ageing staff, combined with recruitment problems and competition from the private sector. Higher salaries in private clinics and hospitals are pulling scarce specialists such as radiologists and anaesthesiologists.
Beyond these areas, the SEPE report highlights other ageing industries, including agriculture, light manufacturing and real estate. In small sectors such as household repair, more than one in five workers are already over 60.
On average, 10.2% of all Spanish workers are 60 or older, but in some industries this share is more than double.
Demographics point to an even sharper imbalance. Over the next decade, 5.3 million people currently aged 55 or above will retire, while only about 1.8 million young people are expected to enter the workforce. That means for every three workers who leave, only one will come in to replace them.
The government and labour experts see few easy solutions. SEPE stresses the need to attract more women, people with disabilities and older workers into employment, while also relying on immigration to fill gaps.
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Projections from the National Statistics Institute suggest Spain will need 4.6 million immigrants between 2026 and 2035 to maintain its labour force.
International organisations such as the OECD and European Central Bank warn that without these measures, Spain’s ageing population could weigh heavily on economic growth.
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The OECD projects the working-age population will shrink by 30% by 2060, giving Spain one of the steepest drops among advanced economies.
The challenge, then, is clear: while Spain is still creating jobs, most new opportunities in the coming decade will not expand the workforce but replace those left empty by retirement.
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