CLIMATE change is set to hamstring Malaga’s economy within the next three decades unless global temperatures are brought under control, a new study has warned.
Blistering heat, violent downpours and worsening water shortages are on track to wipe out 19% of the city’s GDP by 2050, according to the AXA Climate Foundation, as extreme weather threatens to batter productivity and send tourism into decline.
Among the most alarming projections, experts caution that extreme heat could claim up to 10,000 lives in the area by 2050, while water demand may exceed available supplies by a staggering six times.
The forecasts are based on a scenario in which temperatures in Malaga increase between 2.8C and 4C by 2050, with a further one-degree rise expected by 2100.
“Extreme heat, recurrent floods and water shortages are the main challenges Andalucians are set to face,” the report states, warning that conditions are likely to deteriorate further in the coming decades.
Should temperatures climb by as much as five degrees by 2100, Malaga could face ‘20 additional days of extreme heat each year, around 100 more tropical nights, and heatwaves lasting up to four times longer than today,’ the study adds.
The report, unveiled at a public meeting in Malaga last week, also warned that wildfires could surge by as much as 58% over the next three decades.
With farm work becoming punishing in searing heat and factories increasingly vulnerable to water shortages, agriculture and industry are expected to bear the brunt of the economic impact.
Tourism, meanwhile, may be forced to “reinvent itself,” as visitors could increasingly skip the Costa del Sol during peak summer months in search of cooler destinations.
Despite an overall decline in annual rainfall, Malaga may also see a spike in intense storms, with flood risks projected to threaten roughly one in three residents in the city centre.
The densely built southwest is flagged as especially exposed to river flooding, while coastal areas could suffer mounting erosion and damage linked to marine incursions and relentless development.
With Mediterranean waters continuing to warm, AXA forecasters warn that the risks could intensify by 2050 – posing growing challenges for infrastructure, businesses and daily life.
The predictions come close on the heels of a record-breaking winter season for Andalucia, with consecutive storms wreaking havoc across the region as rivers swelled under torrential rain – sending thousands fleeing from their homes and destroying fields and infrastructure.
Spain, however, has set out sweeping plans to confront the climate crisis, backed by some of the toughest targets in Europe.
Under current commitments, the government is legally bound to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 32% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels.
By the end of the decade, roughly 81% of the country’s electricity is expected to come from renewable sources, driven by vast expansions of solar and wind power.
Madrid is also pushing to put 5.5 million electric vehicles on Spanish roads by 2030, backed by incentives designed to speed up the shift away from petrol and diesel cars.
Following this year’s storm season, Spain’s PM Pedro Sanchez said: “We must adapt to a completely new climate reality that demands united action from all levels of government and society.
“We must fight this together,” he added.
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