REASON TO SMILE: Rajoy’s PP leads the polls

FOUR months from Spain’s general elections, the conservative PP leads the field with 28.2% support, according to an official survey released by the state-sponsored Sociological Investigative Centre.

The Socialist Party (PSOE) is not far behind, with 24.9% support, while the far-left Podemos and centrist Ciudadanos parties registered 15.7% and 11.1% support, respectively.

The results indicate a potentially complicated election season, with no party winning enough support to govern alone, forcing the parties to seek coalition partners.

September’s regional elections in Catalunya could also further muddle the situation, as some Catalan leaders have been framing the election as a referendum on independence.

The PP is led by Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s current prime minister.

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  1. This is nothing new, the PP has been consistently ahead in the various polls and sometimes ranked higher than 28%. Rajoy is hoping to do a Cameron which is looking increasingly likely, the shy Conservative vote exists in Spain as well as the UK.

    Overall, it’s difficult to predict, Spanish people vote very differently in each election and particularly general elections. One thing’s for sure, you can’t trust opinion polls.

  2. Given the strong growth in the Spanish economy (double that of Germany this year), after they inherited an economy in freefall, no wonder PP lead the polls – even if many oppose their social policies. The left are held responsible for the crash that took place under Zapatero, in the same way that the left are held responsible for the Brown administration in the Uk. of course the fault really lay with the credit boom instigated by an irresponsible banking sector. Jane has it right, Rajoy will do a Cameron and be re-elected.

  3. Yes Rajoy will win now the economy is improving. However caring the public claim to be their main interest is the feel good factor and I’m alright Jack.

    Was the same in Marbella with GIL. Even though his corruption had been exposed he was still voted in again.

  4. Not just nor instigated by an ‘irresponsible banking sector’, but also by an unregulated property market, corrupt estate agents/Mayors/Town Halls/Developers/Lawyers and ‘B’ money the norm etc etc

    Yes Rajoy and his cronies will no doubt win but still evade the corruption investigation into and levelled at them and any Court appearances. But then Spain is still rife with that and dealing in Spain really has to come with caution!

  5. Mike,
    good comments and most of the scum you mention also exist and operate the same in the UK. Property is a totally parasitic non producing asset class. No economy can achieve a balanced and healthy society until all property, commercial or residential is controlled in a rational manner.

    At least Spain like the rest of mainland Europe has proper rent controls, imagine the beneficial effect rational rent levels would have on the price of property in the UK!

  6. Yes Stuart if rents were controlled in the UK the BTL brigade would no doubt be queuing at the benefits’ offices pretty quickly. I’ve noticed that some smaller UK Banks are being praised for their BTL mortgage strategy at present so it starts all over again, meanwhile Savers still get screwed.

  7. Mike/Stuart,
    Do you know about controlled rents in the UK?
    The rental market changed with the 1988 Housing Act 1988, but tenancies prior to the 15 Jan 1989 are controlled, and still are. Please check section 70 of the Rent Act 1977. They increase by 7.5% or 5% plus the difference in the RPI every 2 years. These are tenancies for life, with succession to the surviving partner.

  8. ShanDoom: Poor landlords. My heart goes out to them. Fancy having the same tenant for twenty-six years and then being stuck with a remaining old codger who could well last for months. Then on top of that, only able to increase their rent by such paltry amounts. There should be a law against it. Patience, Gideon will soon come up with one.

  9. If your comment had any relevance to the market as a whole then the BTL vermin would’nt be laughing all the way to the bank.
    Rent controls mean that we have never had an increase of more than 1.5% either in Spain or France. So the figures you have provided show that in the UK the few people who ‘benefit’ still don’t get a good deal – try being a landlord in Germany – you would be crying every day and that in the strongest economy in Europe.

    America beckons for all those Thatcherites, I still can’t understand why they are still in Europe.

  10. The PP is trying to change the voting rules – at least and initially, in local elections. This is to slow down the use of ‘coalitions’. In the larger, national picture, it would be unlikely for a coalition between the PP and any other group, so while the PP might be ahead, it will certainly not govern in a future Parliament in Spain. The likely spread would be PSOE/Podemos (and we are already seeing the two parties cozying up to each other). The issue remains corruption, and the PP – and to a lesser but still important degree the PSOE – are considered as the parties of the old-style corrupt ‘pringaos’. Perhaps we need a dose of Podemos, like a spoonful of not very pleasent medecine, before we can move forward.

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